📐 Methodology

How the Fish Forecast Score Works

No black box — here's the exact, plain-English rules behind every 1–5 score, in the order they're applied.

See today's forecast →

Start from real weather data, not a guess

Every time a forecast loads, ReelSpots pulls live hourly pressure, wind speed and direction, temperature, and rainfall for that spot's exact coordinates, plus the real sunrise and sunset for that day — all from the Open-Meteo weather service. Nothing in the score is a generic regional average.

Every day starts at 3 — "Fair"

3 out of 5 is the neutral baseline: an ordinary day, no strong signal pushing the bite up or down. From there, each condition below nudges the score up or down by one point. The final number just reflects how many good or bad signals stacked up that day.

Four signals move the needle

These are checked for whichever window — dawn or dusk — looks better that day, so the score reflects your actual best chance, not just a snapshot of right now.

📉
Pressure falling
+1
📈
Pressure spiking up
−1
🌕
Near new/full moon
+1
💨
Wind over ~30 km/h
−1
🌧️
Murky water (heavy recent rain)
−1

Pressure trend compares the current reading to 3 hours earlier — falling pressure ahead of a front tends to trigger a strong, aggressive bite, while a sharp rise afterward usually shuts it down for a day or so.

Moon phase gets a bonus when the day falls within roughly two days of a new or full moon, when tidal and light-cycle effects are strongest.

Wind over about 30 km/h costs a point regardless of direction — it's simply too gusty for comfortable casting or boat control. Wind direction itself doesn't change the score, but the forecast still tells you which shore it's pushing baitfish toward.

Water clarity is estimated from the trailing 48 hours of rainfall at that spot — 15mm or more usually means runoff has clouded the water.

Pro anglers get up to two more points, personally

Once you've tagged a handful of catches with ReelSpots Pro, the forecast compares today's moon phase and water temperature against the exact conditions you personally catch the most in. A match on moon phase adds a point; a match on temperature range adds another — on top of the generic score everyone else sees.

The total is capped between 1 and 5

Whatever the running total comes to after every adjustment, it's clamped to a 1–5 range so the score always maps to one clear label: 1 Slow, 2 Tough, 3 Fair, 4 Good, 5 Prime.

What this score isn't

It's a heuristic built from well-known angling patterns — the same rules of thumb experienced anglers already use, applied consistently every day. It isn't a guarantee: local structure, angling pressure, water level, and plenty of luck all matter too, and none of those are in the model. Treat a high score as a good reason to go, not a promise you'll catch fish.

Common questions about the methodology

What data does the forecast actually use?
Live weather data for the exact coordinates of the spot — hourly barometric pressure, wind speed and direction, temperature, and rainfall, plus that day's real sunrise and sunset — pulled from the Open-Meteo forecasting API each time the forecast loads.
Why does the score start at 3?
3 ('Fair') is the neutral baseline — an ordinary day with no strong signal either way. From there, each condition nudges the score up or down by 1, so the final 1–5 reflects how many good or bad signals stacked up, not a black-box number.
Why is a 1–5 score more useful than a raw pressure or wind number?
Because most anglers don't want to convert hPa and km/h into a decision — they want to know whether it's worth the drive. The score does that conversion using the same rules of thumb experienced anglers already use, just applied consistently every day.
Can the score be wrong?
Yes — it's a heuristic built from well-known angling patterns, not a guarantee. Fish behavior depends on more than five signals, and local factors (structure, pressure from other anglers, water level) aren't in the model. Treat it as a solid starting point, not a promise.
How is water clarity estimated without a turbidity sensor?
Open-Meteo doesn't provide direct water-clarity data, so ReelSpots uses the last 48 hours of rainfall at that spot as a stand-in — heavy rain drives runoff that clouds water, a dry stretch tends to leave it clear. It's an estimate, not a direct reading.
What makes the forecast personalized for Pro anglers?
Once you've tagged a handful of catches with species and location, ReelSpots knows the moon phase and water-temperature range you personally catch the most in. If today's conditions match your own history, the score gets a bonus point on top of the generic version everyone else sees.

ReelSpots Pro — $9.99/mo

Today's forecast, the full spot map, catch logging, and catch analytics — all in one subscription, no free tier.